Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Fib Retracement

Fibonacci or Fib Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal levels. These ratios are found in the Fibonacci sequence ie
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610……The sequence was credited to an Italian mathematician Leonardo Pisano but actually he learned it from Indian mathematician and the Indian got it from Tok Arab.

The most popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. And also 50%.
How do we get the 61.8 figures.
A number divided by the next highest number of the fib sequence approximates 0.6180 (13/21=.6190, 21/34=.6176, 34/55=.6181, 55/89=.6179 etc….). The approximation nears .6180

For 38.2:
A number divided by another two places higher approximates .3820 (13/34=.382, 21/55=.3818, 34/89=.3820, 55/=144=3819 etc….). The approximation nears .3820 as the numbers increase. Also, note that 1 - .618 = .382

….the proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells, Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based much of their art and architecture upon this proportion. They called it the golden mean.

The 50% retracement is not based on a Fib sequence. Instead, this number stems from Dow Theory's assertion that the Averages often retrace half their prior move.   50% is also on Gann Cycle retracement in quadrants ie 25, 50, 75 and 100.

There are two other ratios ie 78.6 and 23.6 which I ignored it... I prescribe to the method of KISS (Keep It Simple, Stupid)

Retracement levels alert traders or investors of a potential trend reversal, resistance area or support area. Retracements are based on the prior move. A bounce is expected to retrace a portion of the prior decline, while a correction is expected to retrace a portion of the prior advance. 38.2 retracement levels is considered a shallow retracement while 61.8 is a deep retracement... beyond a 61.8 is full retracement which subsequently a trend reversal. Ok let analyse the USDMYR chart based on Fib Retracement. Note... USDMYR is based on MYR or RM per one USD.. in other words if the chart moved upward or North means ringgit is weakening while the chart moved in reverse means ringgit is strengthening.


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